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Why Iowa Doesn’t Matter

With Ron Paul holding the current lead in the latest polling out of Iowa, it has once again become very clear why Iowa doesn’t matter. The GOP candidates have covered every corner of the state preparing for next week’s caucuses and all that effort will result in one thing: a winner who will not get the Republican nomination. Just ask Mike Huckabee. Or Bob Dole. Or George H.W. Bush. With the exception of a George W. Bush win in 2000, every other Republican to win the Iowa caucuses has either been the sitting President running for re-election or a candidate who failed to get his party’s nomination. In fact, in 1988 H.W. lost in Iowa to Bob Dole, coming in third behind Dole and Pat Robertson.

Whats more, with the exception of 2004 when the state voted for George W. Bush over John Kerry, the Democratic nominee has come away a winner in five of the last six Presidential elections. And yet, the Republicans have bled themselves to death in a state that most likely won’t even go Republican in the general election.

So why do they pour all their money into a state that doesn’t matter, that won’t produce the nominee as a winner? In 2008, Rudy Giuliani tried to end run Iowa and pour all his resources into Florida and got trounced out of the race. Of course, the winner of the Iowa caucuses in 2008, Mike Huckabee, never even had a fighting chance against McCain.

If I were the GOP I would put Kansas first. In the last 40 years Kansas has correctly chosen the Republican nominee every time, with two exceptions: (1) Bob Dole in 1988 (a long time popular, powerful senator from Kansas) and (2) Mike Huckabee in 2008 (an anomaly that can only be explained by the fact that the state seems to be temporarily insane). Despite Kansas’ current state of psychosis, or maybe because of it, I think they could still do a better job of sorting this crazy group of GOP candidates than Iowa. Let’s move up Kansas’ primary in 2016 to New Year’s Eve. I’m sure Kris Kobach can jerry rig some sort of election law to make it happen. Then, we can stop wasting everyone’s time. Instead, come next Tuesday, we’ll be celebrating a meaningless victory for someone who will never be the GOP nominee.